Seasonal Slip in Trade Conditions

Trade conditions remained in positive territory in February 2013 and at about the same level as in January 2013.  The strong improvement of the Trade Activity Index (TAI) from 42 in December 2012 to 52 in January 2013 was followed by a lateral move to 51 in February 2013.   

  Sluggish Business Climate 

Business confidence remained under pressure in February 2013 and, although the January 2013 SACCI BCI figure improved slightly from 93 points in December 2012 to 94, the business climate fundamentals remained weak as reflected by the critical sub-indices from which the SACCI BCI is compiled. This relegates the marginal improvement in January to initial optimism about 2013.

The monthly decline in the BCI from 94 in January to 93 in February 2013 is the result of real economic activity as well as the financial environment failing to support a sustained improvement in business confidence.   Seven of the thirteen BCI sub-indices impacted negatively on a monthly basis, however merchandise export volumes (seasonally adjusted), real retail sales (although weak) and the weighted average exchange rate of the rand were the only sub-indices driving the BCI higher in February 2013.

SACCI COPPER THEFT BAROMETER:  JANUARY 2013

The Copper Theft Barometer decreased to a level of R11.1 million in January 2013 from R12.4 million in December 2012. This is the lowest level of the Barometer since April 2009 and is a strong indication that the downward momentum seen in 2012 should continue into 2013. While there is a strong relationship between the incidence level of copper theft and the international copper price, this is a cyclical relationship that can be influenced by structural changes within the domestic environment. Improved policing is one such significant structural change that has the distinct potential to reduce the level of copper theft over time, regardless of the price trend.

SACCI ANALYSIS OF THE NATIONAL BUDGET 2013

In a media statement released today, the CEO of the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry, (SACCI) Mr Neren Rau, said:

Quote: The Budget Speech was an important signal that constructive dialogue between government and the South African business community is necessary to support business confidence. The Fiscal space has decidedly narrowed over the past year and the need for collaboration between social partners is more important than ever.