press releases

According to SACCI’s latest survey, trade conditions among businesses remained weak in May 2018. The Trade Activity Index (TAI), indicating prevailing trade conditions, was 40 this month. This is compared with recording 39 in April 2018. This is well into negative territory and below the 50-index point benchmark of no change. The survey also shows trade expectations for the next six months, as the Trade Expectations Index (TEI) declined from 54 in April, to 51 in May.

Trade Conditions weakened in April 2018 with the Trade Activity Index (TAI) of SACCI’s Trade
Conditions Survey for April 2018 measuring 39 after recording 43 in March 2018. The six month
Trade Expectations Index (TAI), however, increased slightly to 54 in April 2018 after recording 52 in
March 2018.

The BCI declined by 1.6 index points between March 2018 and April 2018 from 97.6 in March 2018 to 96.0 in April 2018. The Index improved by 1.1 index point year-on-year from April 2017. It is now six months since November 2017 that the BCI kept to levels above 95. The BCI improved from an average of 95.5 in the first four months of 2017 to 98.0 for the corresponding period in 2018.

The SACCI Business Confidence Index (BCI) was still 3.8 index points above the BCI level of March
2017 but declined by 1.3 index points from 98.9 in February 2018 to 97.6 in March 2018. It is now five
months since November 2017 that the BCI kept to levels above 95. The BCI on average measured 98.7
in the 1st quarter of 2018 compared to 95.7 in the 1st quarter of 2017 and 94.8 in the 4th quarter of 2017.

Although the business climate remained on a relative improved level in February 2018 compared to
January 2018 and February 2017, trade conditions slackened in February 2018 compared to
December 2017 and January 2018.

The SACCI Business Confidence Index (BCI) upheld the improvement of business confidence but
pulled back by 0.8 to 98.9 in February 2017 after recording a relative high level of 99.7 in January 2018.
The BCI for February 2018 is 3.4 index points higher than a year ago and kept to levels above 95 since
November 2017.

With general business confidence at its best level in nearly two and a half years, trade expectations follow suit
and notably maintained an improved level.

SACCI today released the January 2018 SACCI Business Confidence Index (BCI) at its ​Offices in
Rosebank, Johannesburg.

Following on an improving business mood, SACCI’s latest Trade Conditions Survey for December 2017 saw the Trade Expectations Index (TEI) for the next six months retaining a level well into positive territory at 60 after registering 59 in November 2017. However, trade conditions in December 2017 were restrained due to seasonal factors (usual low business-to-business trade during December). The seasonally adjusted Trade Activity Index (TAI) rose from 41 in November to 48 in December 2017. All elements of trade excluding employment declined on November 2017. Compared to December 2016, the TAI was 3 index points down while the TEI was slightly higher by 2 points in December 2017.

SACCI today released the December 2017 SACCI Business Confidence Index (BCI) at its Offices in Rosebank, Johannesburg.

The SACCI Business Confidence Index (BCI) improved by a further 1.3 index points in December 2017 to 96.4 following on the improved business mood in November 2017. The BCI was nearly seven index points better in December 2017 than the lowest 2017 BCI level of 89.6 in August 2017. Starting at 97.7 in January 2017, the BCI dipped to below 90 in the middle of 2017, but since then recovered lost ground to close 2017 at 96.4. The average for the BCI in 2017 was slightly up to 94.4 compared to the average of 93.5 for 2016.

The current improvement in the business mood is only partially explained by the BCI as political developments taking place in the Southern African region, also contributed to raise expectations. The anticipation for more policy certainty and sustainable growth orientated domestic economic policy, global economic growth, and a probable fresh approach towards business and investor challenges, should further augment the business mood.

Four of the thirteen sub-indices that comprise the SACCI BCI, had a positive month-on-month impact in December 2017; five sub-indices moved sideways and four were negative. Five of the seven real economic sub-indices had either neutral or positive month-on-month impacts on the business confidence index in December 2017 and imply improving activity in the short-term.

The improved year-on-year BCI in December 2017 was the result of six sub-indices improving on a year ago, three sub-indices remained unchanged, and four sub-indices were negative. Only two of the seven real economic activity sub-indices had a negative year-on-year effect on the December 2017 BCI while financial conditions also were more positive in December than a year ago with four of the six sub-indices contributing positively to the BCI.

The business mood and business climate have been supplemented by traces of improvement in the financial markets and the economy and the latest economic figures confirm suggestions of improving prospects. The challenges faced by fiscal consolidation, unemployment, excessive debt, low growth and sovereign credit ratings are difficulties that require visionary leadership and urgent and strong action.

There appears to be suggestions of optimism beyond the improvement in SACCI’s Business Confidence Index. Economic dynamics in Southern Africa have set in motion the realisation that economic performance could improve to serve the broader population.

For a full background to this month’s SACCI BCI see the Economic Commentary in the BCI report

In a statement issued by the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI), the CEO of SACCI Mr Alan Mukoki said:

QUOTE:

The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry welcomes the outcome of the elections of the office-bearers of the ANC. As the ruling party we also congratulate the ANC for the display of a peaceful, mature democratic process which bodes well and cements the concept of transparent democratic contestation and processes in the choosing of political leaders in South Africa.

We hope and would like to urge the new ruling party office-bearers together with the new NEC members to be elected, to bear down and take advantage of the leadership opportunity that has been presented, to drive the necessary and urgent decisions, to restore confidence in South Africa as an Investment destination.

The challenges we face in the area of fiscal consolidation, unemployment, the current high debt to GDP ratio, and the sovereign credit ratings downgrades are matters that require visionary leadership and urgent drastic action to be taken. This in the contextual background where the triple challenges of poverty, unemployment and inequality remain the most important overall challenge that need to be eradicated.

As the business community we look forward to engaging and working with the newly elected President of the ANC Mr Cyril Ramaphosa, the new office-bearers and wish them the best of luck over their impending five year term in office.

We take this moment to wish the ANC leaders prosperity and good fortune as they set out to make what we hope will be a positive contribution to economic growth and job creation. Congratulations to those who were elected.

In SACCI’s latest Trade Conditions Survey the Trade Activity Index (TAI) for November 2017 declined slightly by one index point to 45 and remained in negative territory. Some important elements of trade contracted in November except for new orders that increased and thus supported expectations. The seasonally adjusted TAI was down by 2 index points in November 2017 and emulate the sluggish economy. The seasonally adjusted TAI was 7 index points lower in November 2017 than a year ago.

SACCI today released the November 2017 SACCI Business Confidence Index (BCI) at its Offices in Rosebank, Johannesburg.

The Trade Activity Index (TAI) of SACCI’s Trade Conditions Survey for October 2017 remained in
negative territory at 46 in October 2017. All elements of trade activity improved on September except for
prices that increased and jobs remaining unchanged. The seasonally adjusted TAI was down by 2 index
points in October 2017 – confirming real trade constraints. The TAI in October 2017 was 5 index points
lower than in October 2016 confirming tougher overall trade conditions.​

SACCI today released the October 2017 SACCI Business Confidence Index (BCI) at its Offices in
Rosebank, Johannesburg.
After the SACCI BCI recovered by 3.4 index points to 93.0 in September 2017 from a low in August
2017, the BCI remained virtually unchanged at 92.9 in October 2017. The BCI registered nearly a
similar reading in October 2017 than last year’s October BCI of 93.0.
The average for the BCI in the first ten months of 2017 was 94.1 compared to 93.4 for the corresponding
period of 2016, and 101.2 for the first ten months of 2015. The 2017 BCI average signifies a decline of
7.1 index points on the 2015 BCI average (which is before the replacement of the Finance Minister in
December 2015).​

The Trade Activity Index (TAI) of SACCI’s Trade Conditions Survey for September 2017 dipped to a low 40 – down from 48 in August 2017. All elements of trade experienced lower readings with only
employment remaining unchanged. The seasonally adjusted TAI was also down by 9 index points on
August – bucking the current trend indicating a possible temporary sharp decline. The TAI was 11 index points lower in September 2017 at 40 than the 51 in September 2016.

The Trade Activity Index (TAI) of the SACCI Trade Conditions Survey for August 2017 was up to 48 from 47 for July 2017. Although slightly in negative territory, the seasonally adjusted TAI was edging towards the positive and remained approximately stable on 50. The TAI was one index point lower in August 2017 at 48 than the 49 in August 2016.

Business Confidence weak, but positive signs portend better things to come

The Minister of Finance, the Honourable Mr Pravin Gordhan, delivered the Budget Speech on the 22nd of February 2017. The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) welcomes that which under present difficult economic conditions is a measured and relatively balanced budget..

The Minister of Finance, the Honourable Mr Pravin Gordhan, will be delivering the Budget Speech on the 22nd of February 2017. The 2017 Budget Speech is being delivered at a time South Africa is experiencing subdued economic growth, with the outlook for 2017 revised by the Reserve bank to 1.1% from a previous outlook of 1.2%.